New Delhi, Jan 1 : In 2015, preceding Chinese President Xi Jinping's maiden visit to Pakistan, the two nations indulged in grandiose rhetoric to celebrate their friendship. The relationship was described as being "higher than the Himalayas, deeper than the ocean, sweeter than honey, and stronger than steel".

This flowery depiction underscored the strategic significance of their bilateral engagement as part of President Xi's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The partnership was hailed as transformative for regional geopolitics, with the potential to reshape South Asia's strategic dynamics.

However, by 2024, nearly a decade later, this partnership has encountered serious challenges, overshadowed by Islamabad's inability to provide security for Chinese investments and nationals.

As tensions mount and Beijing appears to recalibrate its approach towards Pakistan, this decline reflects the systemic failures of Pakistan's military-dominated establishment to ensure internal stability and meet its strategic commitments.

Often referred to as "all-weather friends" and "iron brothers", Pakistan and China have historically enjoyed close relations.

Despite Pakistan's alignment with the US-led Western bloc during much of the Cold War, Islamabad and Beijing managed to cultivate a robust partnership. Over the years, economic cooperation emerged as a cornerstone of their relationship, witnessing a qualitative leap following Xi Jinping's ascension to the Chinese presidency in 2012.

Under President Xi's leadership, Pakistan became a key node in China's Asian policy framework, with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) emerging as the flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative.

By 2024, CPEC investments were estimated to exceed $62 billion, underscoring their critical importance in the economic and geopolitical calculations of both nations.

Despite this promising start, the bilateral relationship has experienced significant turbulence in recent years. Pakistan's chronic economic mismanagement, coupled with a spate of insurgent attacks targeting Chinese interests and nationals, has strained ties between the two countries.

A particularly notable incident occurred on October 6, 2024, when operatives from the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) attacked a convoy of Chinese workers near Karachi's Jinnah International Airport.

The assault, which resulted in the deaths of two Chinese engineers, highlighted glaring security lapses. Beijing's frustration with Islamabad's inability to protect its citizens and projects was evident, with the Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan, Jiang Zaidong, issuing a rare public rebuke.

Ambassador Jiang demanded immediate action to "hunt down" the perpetrators and implement measures to safeguard CPEC projects and Chinese personnel.

This attack was not an isolated incident. Earlier in March 2024, Pakistan witnessed a series of violent attacks targeting Chinese nationals and CPEC-linked projects.

On March 20, insurgents from the BLA's Majeed Brigade attacked the heavily fortified Gwadar Port Authority Complex in Balochistan. As the flagship initiative of CPEC, Gwadar Port's vulnerability raised serious concerns about Pakistan's ability to protect critical infrastructure.

This was followed by a second attack on March 25, targeting Pakistan Naval Station (PNS) Siddique, a high-security naval airbase tasked with safeguarding CPEC assets. The breach of this military installation not only underscored Pakistan's security weaknesses but also eroded Chinese confidence in Islamabad's capacity to fulfil its commitments.

The most devastating attack during this period occurred on March 26, when a suicide bomber affiliated with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) rammed an explosive-laden vehicle into a convoy of Chinese workers near Besham in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The attack, which killed five Chinese nationals and their Pakistani driver, further exacerbated tensions between the two countries. Beijing's response was unequivocal, framing the growing threats to its nationals and projects as a critical 'red line".

Chinese authorities demanded robust guarantees from Islamabad, including a thorough investigation, accountability for the perpetrators, and immediate action to address security lapses.

These recurring attacks have severely tested Sino-Pakistani relations, prompting Beijing to mount pressure on Islamabad to launch a comprehensive nationwide military campaign against insurgent groups.

China's growing impatience was evident in its decision to delay Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's planned visit to Beijing in May 2024. Beijing conditioned the visit on Islamabad's explicit commitment to initiate a counterterrorism operation, to which Pakistan ultimately acquiesced.

Although Prime Minister Sharif eventually visited Beijing in June, the trip yielded little in terms of substantive economic commitments or new projects. This lukewarm reception signalled a qualitative cooling in the bilateral relationship.

In response to Chinese demands, Pakistan launched 'Operation Azm-i-Istehkam' on June 22, a nationwide military campaign aimed at dismantling insurgent networks.

However, the operation's effectiveness has been called into question, as attacks targeting Chinese interests have persisted. The trust deficit between the two nations has deepened, with Beijing reportedly pressing Islamabad to allow the deployment of Chinese security personnel within Pakistan.

A November 12, 2024, report by Reuters revealed that Beijing had proposed a clause permitting Chinese security agencies and military forces to conduct joint counterterrorism operations on Pakistani soil.

While Islamabad has resisted this demand, it has counter-proposed the establishment of a specialised security firm, developed with Chinese assistance, to safeguard Chinese nationals and projects.

Despite these overtures, Beijing's dissatisfaction remains evident.

The deteriorating relations between China and Pakistan underscore the disconnect between Islamabad's rhetoric and its ability to address Beijing's concerns. The Pakistani military, which remains preoccupied with internal political manoeuvring and safeguarding the privileges of its elite, has failed to prioritise the security of Chinese investments and personnel.

Unless Islamabad undertakes decisive action to dismantle militant networks and address its internal security challenges, the prospects for improving Sino-Pakistani relations appear bleak

This decline in bilateral ties carries broader implications for Pakistan's strategic standing in the region. China, which has historically been one of Pakistan's most reliable allies, appears increasingly disillusioned with Islamabad's inability to deliver on its commitments.

This disillusionment risks further isolating Pakistan, which is already grappling with economic instability and strained relations with other regional players. The persistent neglect of security imperatives not only jeopardises Pakistan's relationship with China but also undermines its credibility as a partner in regional development initiatives.

Moreover, the growing tension between China and Pakistan has ramifications for the broader Belt and Road Initiative. CPEC, once heralded as the 'game-changer' for Pakistan's economy, now faces significant challenges due to security concerns and waning Chinese enthusiasm.

For Beijing, Pakistan's inability to secure CPEC projects raises questions about the viability of similar investments in other politically unstable regions. For Islamabad, the deterioration of its relationship with China could have far-reaching consequences, limiting its access to critical financial and infrastructural support at a time when its economy is teetering on the brink of collapse.

In conclusion, the once-celebrated Sino-Pakistani partnership now finds itself at a crossroads. The repeated attacks on Chinese nationals and interests have exposed Pakistan's systemic weaknesses and undermined its strategic credibility.

Unless Islamabad takes decisive action to address these challenges, it risks not only losing a key ally but also further destabilising its already fragile internal security landscape.

For China, the situation serves as a cautionary tale about the risks associated with investing in politically volatile regions. Moving forward, both nations must recalibrate their approaches to ensure the sustainability of their partnership and address the root causes of their current tensions.

Without meaningful reforms and sustained efforts to improve security, the prospects for the Sino-Pakistani relationship will remain uncertain, with significant implications for the broader geopolitical landscape of South Asia.

/IANS