Islamabad, Dec 29 : The South Asian region is heading towards a volatile phase marked by deadly clashes, renewed refugee flows, and entrenched cycles of vengeance propelled by Pakistan's military establishment, a report said on Monday.

It added that the Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict has largely been shaped and sustained by a military-led diplomatic framework that avoids accountability and thrives in an environment of chaos.

According to a report in â??Asian News Postâ??, Islamabadâ??s military-led strategy has failed to secure Pakistanâ??s borders, safeguard its citizens and generate goodwill abroad. Instead, it has fueled widespread suffering, humanitarian crises, and destabilised the wider region.

â??The ongoing conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan is not simply a clash between two neighbours. It is the outcome of the Pakistan military-driven diplomacy, one built on crisis, force, and national-security posturing rather than honest dialogue. Four years after the Taliban took over in Kabul, the same Pakistani military and intelligence networks that once welcomed them are now blaming the Taliban for cross-border violence, forcing Afghan refugees from Pakistan, and launching airstrikes and shelling inside Afghanistan,â?? it detailed.

This pattern of largely one-sided violence, the report said, underscored not only the failure of Pakistanâ??s Afghanistan policy but also a deeper structural problem -- when the military controls the foreign policy, peace ceases to be the goal and instead becomes an obstacle.

â??Back in August 2021, many analysts believed a Taliban-led Afghanistan would give Pakistan a strategic partner in the neighbourhood. The Pakistan military saw value in reduced border friction, regional leverage, and a friendly regime in Kabul. Some within Pakistan's security establishment openly celebrated the Talibanâ??s return to power as a victory of the long-held "strategic depth" policy. Over time, however, the reality proved sharply different,â?? it stated.

By the end of 2025, Pakistan accused the Taliban government of sheltering militants linked to suicide bombings and attacks inside Pakistan, including those by the Tehrikâ??eâ??Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The accusations led to an escalation of violence and further eroded trust between the two sides.

The report highlighted that violence unfolded despite fresh peace talks in Saudi Arabia involving negotiators from both sides. The negotiations collapsed swiftly, unable to bridge the deep-seated distrust and mutual blame.

â??This pattern reveals a stark truth that the Pakistan military-driven policy on Afghanistan has wholly failed to bring peace with the Taliban in the last four years. It appears Rawalpindi wants to project strength, orchestrating crises, and using conflict to justify its permanent influence in the country. Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir recently warned the Taliban to choose between friendly ties with Islamabad or support for â??terrorist groups,â?? a thinly veiled threat that highlights how coercion overrides diplomacy in Pakistan," the report noted.

/IANS